Thursday, August 21, 2008

The Catholic Voter: Who are they voting for?

I take polls with a grain of salt. Most of the time I just ignore them. I mean their accuracy is like trying to predict the weather.
Every once in a while there interesting to look at...

According to a Zogby poll, Obama's support among Catholics has fallen 11% in the last month, from 47% to 36%. His support has also fallen dramatically among other key groups such as women and voters under age 35.

Zogby doesn't speculate why Obama's Catholic support is declining -- he attributes the general drop to McCain's questioning of his experience and readiness to lead the country.
I would call this phase of the relationship between Obama and Catholic voters the "Strike Two Moment."

Catholics shrugged off the Rev. Wright phenomenon fairly quickly; Wright was so over the top, they figured anyone nominated for president by a major political party couldn't possibly hold opinions that extreme.

Then came a succession of stories revealing Obama positions on the social issues important to religiously-active Catholics. He very publicly opposed California's Proposition 8 which defines marriage between a man and a woman. And the tangled explanations of his opposition to BAIPA have led to greater public awareness of his extremism on abortion.

Jill Stanek's appearance last night on Hannity & Colmes is bad news for the Obama campaign. The issue of infanticide and Obama has become a national story.

Whether "Strike Three" will arrive -- or what it would be -- is hard to predict. But the way Obama and his campaign are handling controversy thus far makes it highly likely. Encouraging the candidate and his surrogates to defend the indefensible is a losing strategy, especially among active Catholic voters. If the "above my pay grade" comment had occurred in a televised president debate, it might have qualified for the strike out.


  1. Just a heads up: Mike Huckabee recently gave an interview in which he holds Mitt Romney responsible for implementing gay marriage in Massachusetts.


    Welcome to the coalition.

    I wish that more rank and file members of the LDS (Mormon) church would realize: the anti-gay coalition they've joined in California is one that includes folks who - given the chance - would vote their church out of existence.

    Folks like Mike Huckabee and his Evangelical buddies.

  2. thanks for the video link...
    WCC +<><